Democratic Playbook: How Focusing on Cost of Living Issues Allowed Aftyn Behn to Achieve a Historic Over Performance in a Red District

The Republican Party breathed a collective sigh of relief following Matt Van Epps’s victory in the closely watched special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District on December 2, 2025. Van Epps, a former state official endorsed by President Donald Trump, defeated Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn and successfully held the reliably Republican seat, preventing what would have been a catastrophic morale defeat. While the outcome averted an immediate "nightmare" scenario losing a district Trump won by over 20 percentage points in 2024 the margin of victory and the required Republican spending serve as stark, alarming signals for the party’s national electoral picture heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

The final margin, with Van Epps winning around 53.9% to Behn’s 45.0%, represents a dramatic over-performance by the Democrat in what should have been a safe Republican seat. Former Representative Mark Green won the same district by over 21 points in 2024. The 15 to 17 point swing towards the Democratic candidate compared to the last presidential and congressional results has been immediately seized upon by Democrats as evidence that no Republican seat is truly safe. This result continues a worrying trend for Republicans who have seen massive over-performances by Democrats in recent special and off-year elections, including major losses in the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey last month.

The resources required for the victory further underscore the Republican party’s underlying weakness. To secure the win, Van Epps benefited from an enormous spending spree from national Republican groups, including over $1 million from the Trump supporting MAGA Inc. super PAC, its first spending since the 2024 general election. This infusion of cash, combined with rallies featuring House Speaker Mike Johnson and virtual campaign appearances by President Trump, was necessary to salvage a seat that previously required minimal national attention. The need for such a massive, late surge of national money and political star power to defend a deep red district indicates that the party is struggling to generate local enthusiasm and maintain its base support organically.

The impact of the Tennessee result is therefore psychological rather than structural. On the surface, the Republican majority in the House remains at a narrow 219-213, and Speaker Johnson avoids losing a critical vote. However, the closeness of the race has reinforced Democratic confidence and confirmed a key strategic pathway: running candidates like Aftyn Behn who focus intensely on cost of living issues, such as housing and grocery costs, and energy prices. Democrats effectively nationalized the race around economic dissatisfaction and the high price of inflation, forcing the Republican candidate to focus heavily on aligning himself with the president and national cultural issues, a strategy that narrowly succeeded but failed to stem the major shift in voting margins.

Looking ahead, the Tennessee special election acts as a powerful warning sign for the Republican party’s 2026 strategy. If the party is forced to spend millions and mobilize its highest-ranking figures to defend seats that vote for their president by over 20 points, the prospect of holding or expanding the House majority becomes increasingly difficult. The focus must now shift to economic messaging that directly addresses the concerns of the working class and suburban voters who appear to be peeling away. Otherwise, the small victory in Tennessee will be viewed in retrospect as a successful battle that failed to prevent a much larger, and scarier, war of attrition in the coming midterm elections.